By Carmen M. Reinhart
This booklet offers facts that public bills within the complex economies have surged lately to degrees no longer recorded because the finish of worldwide struggle II, surpassing the heights reached through the First international battle and the good melancholy. whilst, deepest debt degrees, quite these of economic associations and families, are in uncharted territory and are (in various levels) a contingent legal responsibility of the general public area in lots of international locations. traditionally, excessive leverage episodes were linked to slower monetary development and a better occurrence of default or, extra usually, restructuring of private and non-private money owed. A extra sophisticated kind of debt restructuring within the guise of economic repression (which had its heyday in the course of the tightly regulated Bretton Woods procedure) additionally importantly facilitated sharper and extra swift debt aid than may have another way been the case from the overdue Nineteen Forties to the Nineteen Seventies. it's conjectured right here that the urgent wishes of governments to minimize debt rollover hazards and lessen emerging curiosity bills in gentle of the colossal debt overhang (combined with the common legit aversion to particular restructuring) are resulting in a revival of monetary repression, together with extra directed lending to govt via captive household audiences (such as pension funds), particular or implicit caps on rates of interest, and tighter law on cross-border capital pursuits.
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Additional info for A Decade of Debt
Bordo, Michael, Barry Eichengreen, Daniela Klingebiel, and Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria. 2001. Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe? Economic Policy 16 (April): 51–82. Bruno, Michael, and William Easterly. 1998. Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics 41, no. 1 (February): 3–26. Calvo, Guillermo. 1988. Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations. American Economic Review 78, no. 4 (September): 647–61. Caprio, Gerard, Daniela Klingebiel, Luc Laeven, and Guillermo Noguera.
25 We have shown in our earlier work that a country’s credit history plays a prominent role in determining what levels of debt it can sustain without landing on a sovereign debt crisis. More to the point of this analysis, however, we have no comparable evidence yet to suggest that the consequences of higher debt levels for growth will be different for the United States than for other advanced economies. 26 Despite considerable deleveraging by the private financial sector, total debt remains near its historic high in 2008.
We refer to contagion as an episode in which there are significant immediate effects in a number of countries following an event—that is, when the consequences are fast and furious and evolve over a matter of hours or days. This “fast and furious” reaction is a contrast to cases in which the initial international reaction to the news is muted. The latter cases do not preclude the emergence of gradual and protracted effects that may cumulatively have major economic consequences. We refer to these gradual cases as spillovers.
A Decade of Debt by Carmen M. Reinhart
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